Renewed Focus on European Deterrence
President Emmanuel Macron is set to outline how France could contribute more directly to Europe’s nuclear deterrence, insisting that any expanded role would complement — not compete with — the security umbrella provided by the United States.
Speaking from the Île Longue peninsula, home to France’s fleet of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, Macron will revisit a proposal he first raised in 2020. At the time, his offer to involve European partners in France’s nuclear doctrine and exercises attracted little attention. Today, however, the geopolitical climate has shifted dramatically.
A Changing Security Landscape
Europe is reassessing its defence posture in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Questions about Washington’s long-term commitment to European security — particularly after tensions within NATO and talk of a partial US military drawdown from the continent — have sparked fresh debate in EU capitals.
Earlier this month at the Munich Security Conference, Macron confirmed he had opened a “strategic dialogue” with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other European leaders on how France’s national nuclear doctrine might be better aligned with European defence needs.
French officials argue that rising global instability — including Russia’s development of hypersonic missiles, China’s expanding arsenal, and uncertainty surrounding Iran — has heightened interest among European partners. Still, they stress that any French initiative would operate firmly within NATO’s framework rather than replacing it. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that replicating the US nuclear umbrella would be prohibitively costly and complex.
“Strict Sufficiency,” Not an Arms Race
France’s nuclear strategy is based on what it calls “strict sufficiency,” maintaining only the number of warheads deemed necessary to deter aggression. With roughly 300 nuclear warheads — far fewer than the estimated 3,500-plus held by both the US and Russia — Paris insists it is not engaged in an arms race. The objective, officials say, is to retain the capacity to inflict unacceptable damage on any adversary, thereby preventing conflict rather than provoking it.
France and the UK have already deepened cooperation in this area through the Northwood Declaration signed last summer. The agreement established a Nuclear Steering Group to guide joint efforts and expanded participation in each other’s nuclear exercises, signalling a growing alignment between Europe’s two nuclear-armed powers.
